Analysts acknowledge that forecasts for the growth of mobile marketing
and advertising are just educated guesses, but Jupiter Research sees a
€700 million, or $895 million, market in Western Europe by 2010, up from
less than €100 million now. Ovum, a telecommunications consultancy,
forecasts a $1.3 billion U.S. market by 2010.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/08/27/business/ad28.php
One can probably assume the same items will apply to Mobile Search
through a in-car mobile appliance
New 411 User Survey Points To Mobile Local Search Demand
Many Internet companies, especially some of the much-hyped Web 2.0
startups, are busy building tools and applications for which no
mainstream consumer demand actually exists. In my view that's what
killed many of early Internet companies after the first bubble burst –
there was no existing use case to sustain them.
But the opposite is true of nascent "mobile local search," a set of
half-baked tools and embryonic applications that seek to deliver local
content to wireless users. People are eager for local information on the
go; and when wireless data services become fast, easy to use and more
affordable, you'll see adoption ramp quickly. Remarkably, the user
demand for local content on mobile devices is much more developed than
the carriers' and wireless content providers' current mobile offerings.
It's in this larger context that I write about a new study released this
week from Tellme, an automated voice services provider and directory
assistance (411) wholesaler. The company engaged Harris Interactive and
surveyed 1,425 adult Americans about directory assistance usage. The
study was conducted between March 31 and June 7 of this year.
At the highest level, the survey revealed that the majority (55%) of
people calling 411 these days are doing so from wireless phones. (That
makes sense because the Internet/local search is often a 411
substitute.) The study also revealed demographic differences in behavior
and attitudes toward directory assistance. The findings showed, in
addition, that mobile 411 callers are most interested in entertainment
(restaurants, bars, movies), shopping and travel-related information.
And reading a little deeper you also get a fascinating sense of the
immediacy and intensity of user interest in local content in the mobile
context.
Directory assistance is a mature, multi-billion dollar industry in the
U.S. and Europe (although the industry structure in Europe is
different). It is based on a consumer pay-per-use model, although a
number of providers in the U.S., such as 1-800 Free-411 and
1-800-411-Metro, are now offering free, ad-supported 411 to consumers.
But as I lay out some the Tellme survey findings don't think about
"directory assistance" (i.e., "What city, what listing?") per se, think
about mobile local search with a voice interface. That's where directory
assistance is headed anyway: category search with a voice front end.
From a user-experience perspective the wireless industry must address
some of the more challenging usability issues before mobile data becomes
mainstream in the U.S. Imperfect though it is, voice is one of the
potential responses to some of those wireless usability questions.
On to the survey . . . First, the demographic findings:
As mentioned, 55% of all U.S. adults used 411 in a mobile context. That
number was even higher for 18 to 28 year olds (63%). According to the
findings only 26% said they used directory assistance most frequently at
home. Almost half of women use 411 one or more times a month as compared
with 37% of men.
The survey segmented the data by gender and according to three
demographic groups: Boomers (41-60), GenXers (29-40) and Millennials
(18-28). You can read the segmentation breakdowns by content category
usage in the release. In the aggregate, however, when users called 411
they were typically looking for the following information:
• Restaurants & Bars: 43%
• Retail Stores: 36%
• Hotels/Lodging: 24%
• Movie Theaters, Amusement & Recreation: 20%
• Transportation: Taxis & Airlines: 10%
Another interesting cluster of findings surrounded use of 411
"alternatives." In other words, what did people do when they didn't call
411? (I for example pay Sprint $1.25 every time I dial 411, so I don't.)
Again, there are differences by age and gender. But here are the overall
data:
• Called a family member: 58%
• Called a friend: 46%
• Stopped at a phone booth: 29%
• Called a colleague: 27%
• Torn page from phone book: 7%
• Booted up computer in the car: 7%
• Driven to wireless “Hot Spot”: 5%
These creative alternatives – we've all done some version of this –
reflect both the determination and the immediate need of mobile users to
get information en route to their destinations. I believe these
alternative behaviors also show a pent up desire for mobile applications
that are more flexible and versatile than today's 411 (i.e., "What city,
what listing?"). In other words, it reflects the demand for true "mobile
local search" capabilities. Friends at home, for example, can also look
up reviews, menus, store hours and so on.
According to mobile analytics firm Telephia 34.6 million U.S. wireless
subscribers accessed the Internet from their mobile phones in June of
this year. However, none of the top 10 mobile sites had a reach of more
than 3%. Here are Telephia's top 10 sites:
1. Yahoo! Mail
2. The Weather Channel (Weather.com)
3. ESPN
4. Google Search
5. MSN Hotmail
6. MapQuest
7. AOL Mail
8. CNN
9. Yahoo! Weather
10. Yahoo! Search
Last September, Telephia reported on the top mobile content categories:
1. Email
2. Weather
3. Search
4. Sports
5. News/Politics
6. Entertainment
7. City Guides/Maps
8. Games
9. Portals
10. Business/Finance
Earlier this year AOL released the results of its own mobile user
survey. Among the findings of that survey were that maps were the number
one "must-have" new feature. And last July TNS found that local content
(driving directions, restaurant reservations, and weather and traffic
alerts) topped the list of services that users wanted on their mobile
devices.
These myriad data points show the demand among wireless users for local
content is strong and that they'll go to some lengths to get it. And
unlike some of the startups online -- that will be waiting for a long
time for consumers to show up -- users already have an expressed desire
for mobile local search. It's now a question of the carriers and content
providers getting all their "ducks in a row" and making wireless data
services more affordable and more usable.
Lower Prices Boosting 10-GigE
JULY 31, 2006
The 10-Gbit/s Ethernet market could be poised for a growth spurt, as
prices are getting down to the critical level to kick up some serious
demand, according to the latest Heavy Reading report.
That's the conclusion of "10-Gbit/s Ethernet Components: A Heavy Reading
Competitive Analysis," which was published last week. The report breaks
down the 10-Gbit/s market, looking at transceivers, transponders, and
chips, covering 225 devices from 38 vendors. (See Cheaper Chips Drive
Sales.)
Chip vendors "shipped as many 10-Gbit/s Ethernet devices in 2005 as they
did in the preceding three to four years combined," analyst Simon
Stanley writes in the report. "This activity at the components level
means significant growth in 10-Gbit/s Ethernet port shipments will
accelerate, as the cost reductions work through the supply chain."
That's good news to some, because while volumes have been enough to fuel
some cost reductions, they've been too low for some suppliers' tastes.
The ultimate demand for 10-Gbit/s Ethernet has never been in doubt,
particularly when it comes to short-reach environments such as data
centers or carrier hotels. The problem is that pricing has stayed high
enough to keep some customers from diving in wholeheartedly.
"Its deployment has lagged behind the forecasts because the prices were
higher than people expected, or higher than the value proposition,"
Finisar Corp. (Nasdaq: FNSR - message board) CEO Jerry Rawls tells Light
Reading.
Of course, 10-Gbit/s Ethernet isn't completely stalled -- otherwise
Force10 Networks Inc. wouldn't still be around. And transceiver modules
for 10 Gbit/s are fueling the IPO filing of Optium Corp. , although that
company sells to the Sonet market in addition to Ethernet. (See Optium
Files for $100M IPO.)
For each generation of Ethernet, the magic number has been between 3 and
4 -- that is, the next speed grade starts to take off when its price
falls to three or four times the previous generation's.
By some metrics, 10-Gbit/s Ethernet is finally getting there. Prices for
10-Gbit/s ports have only recently dropped to less than $10,000 per
uplink -- which, with 48-port switches on the market, translates to less
than $200 per user. That's finally an acceptable premium over the $50 to
$100 per port for Gigabit Ethernet.
Suppliers, likewise, are reporting a bounty of shipments. "We expect to
see 10-Gbit/s Ethernet shipments nearly triple this year from last
year," Mitch Kahn, Quake Technologies Inc. VP of marketing, tells Light
Reading.
If volumes didn't drive those prices down, what did? It's the chip
technology -- PHY prices are one-tenth what they were in the first
generation of 10-Gbit/s Ethernet, Stanley notes.
Modules are lowering systems prices, too, by getting smaller. The
industry started with the 300-pin multisource agreement (MSA) and has
been moving through smaller module generations since -- to Xenpak, then
X2, and eventually XFP.
And vendors are already working on the next step beyond the XFP
transceiver, called SFP+. It's even smaller -- Stanley reports it's
one-third the size of an XFP -- and pluggable. It's expected to bring
prices down even further by lowering power consumption while increasing
the potential port density of equipment. (See XFP Module Gets a Shrink.)
Quake has declared itself an SFP+ frontrunner, having recently announced
the necessary PHY chip for such a module. Not surprisingly, the company
now sees a bigger future for SFP+ than for the long anticipated XFP MSA.
"It looks like that's going to be displaced in favor of SFP+," Kahn
says. (See Quake Intros SFP+ PHY.)
That may be a bit hyperbolic, given SFP+ is only starting. Stanley notes
50 XFP modules are available from 13 vendors. XFP "is already being used
by OEMs across the industry for a wide range of applications," he writes.
The report compares the offerings of 38 vendors, noting that Finisar and
Broadcom Corp. (Nasdaq: BRCM - message board) offer the broadest range
in transponders and PHY chips, respectively.
— Craig Matsumoto, Senior Editor, Light Reading
Please don't feed the monkey. Copyright © 2000-2006 Light Reading Inc. -
All rights reserved.
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